By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

It’s not surprising that JP Morgan, the largest bank in the US, and the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) under Elvira Nabiullina agree on the future and what’s to be done to get there profitably.

However, when JP Morgan’s commodities research team – composed of three Russian émigrés to the US – reported to clients last month on global oil demand, supply and price they admitted they do not  know how to predict the future. “We don’t have a baseline view” was their professional euphemism.  They explained, as reported indirectly, “since the [Iran] war began, Brent has averaged about $94, not $130. Global inventories of crude and products are down about 555 million barrels — only one-third of what JPMorgan originally projected. Demand is running about 4.4 million b/d below year-ago levels. The market cleared the shock through demand destruction first, and stock draws second…When commercial inventories fall, prices usually rise because buyers compete for scarce barrels. When the market clears through weaker demand, the price response works the other way. China is the case study: JPMorgan estimated Chinese gasoline demand destruction at about 180,000 b/d and said 70% of that may not return even after markets normalize, which could cut China’s crude import need by as much as 1 million b/d.”  

The bank is warning that,  whether or not the Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb Straits open for more or less energy flows, the US war against Iran and Yemen, in parallel with the US-NATO war against Russian oil tankers at sea and domestic Russian refineries,  has already begun to destroy the global demand for crude oil and petroleum products. The outcome in the short and medium term: the oil marker price isn’t going steadily upwards,  but the country-by-country GDP projection is going steadily downwards into recession.

For US voters preparing for the November 3 congressional elections, this is obvious. Not only has the ratio of disapproval to approval of the Trump Administration’s performance on inflation reached a record high of minus 42%;  so too is the disapproval of Trump’s performance on the economy.  

In contrast to the JP Morgan report, Nabiullina of the Central Bank was emphatic in her report of September 30 that she knows all there is to know. There are four scenarios for the 2027-29 period, she claimed — a risk scenario, a proinflationary scenario, a deflationary scenario, and a baseline. Nabiullina was confident her baseline will come true. “The Bank of Russia considers the baseline scenario to be the most probable one. As for the disinflationary and  proinflationary scenarios, the latter is more likely. The probability of the risk scenario remains low.”  

In case she is wrong on the baseline, she also announced that it won’t be her fault – it will be the mistake of the Russian Ministry of Finance and the result of external, global factors. “The fiscal policy-related assumptions of the baseline scenario rely on public comments by the Ministry of Finance regarding the structural primary deficit of the federal budget. The baseline scenario assumes that the deficit will be decreasing gradually and reach a zero level in 2029. The forecast calculations are based on the assumption that the structural primary deficit will equal 2% of GDP in 20266, 1% of GDP in 2027, and 0.5% of GDP in 2028.”  

Because the rising budget expenditures on the war in the Ukraine are pushing on the deficit, Nabiullina is implying – as she has done from before the Special Military Operation commenced – that  she wants the war to end this year (on US, European and Ukrainian terms) and is opposed to the General Staff, Defense Ministry and Security Council plan to fight on.

Nabiullina buries the recession for the Russian economy in her risk scenario projection – minus 8% to minus 9% GDP contraction in 2027. That will come with collapsing consumer spending and capital investment. The baseline projection for GDP is close to zero this year and no better than plus 2.5% next year.    “The baseline scenario assumes that the supply shocks that emerged in 2026 due to the temporary contraction of production capacity in certain industries will be transitory” – that’s Nabiullina’s alibi for the disinvestment her high Central Bank interest rates has caused.

“As regards external conditions, the baseline and disinflationary scenarios assume that the current trends in the world economy and the sanction pressure will remain almost unchanged…Whatever the scenario,” she has concluded, “the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy will be aimed at returning inflation to 4% and stabilising it sustainably close to this level. The complex of measures and decisions made will be adjusted depending on the state of the Russian economy, inflation trends, and the main indicators in financial markets.

That’s CBR-speak for saying Nabiullina doesn’t know what will be happen after she comes to the end of her term in June 2027.

The Kremlin-backed security analysis platform, Vzglyad, is also insisting that the bad news for the enemy states can only be good news for Russia’s warfighting strategy. Ignoring the demand destruction line from JP Morgan, Vzglyad has just published its report headline: “The depletion of global oil reserves plays into Russia’s hands.”  

President Vladimir Putin was more sanguine in his speech to the Valdai Club on Thursday (October 1): “Whatever scenario unfolds in the world in the years ahead, the international conflicts, unfortunately, are likely to continue. This is due in part to the fact that the profound shifts now under way, and the opportunities they create, fuel and encourage ambitions and a willingness to take risks for what may appear to be a major payoff. I wish I were wrong in this assessment, but the sustainable trends we are witnessing, unfortunately, suggest otherwise.” 

The JP Morgan report warned that know-nothing is now more realistic than positive oil supply and demand projections, according to the indirect quotes. “Anyone printing a single 2027 average [for oil and gas prices] today is choosing a peace date. JP Morgan’s peace date is not a market input anymore.”

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by Editor - Thursday, October 1st, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The 73-year old President Xi Jinping, and 80-year old President Donald Trump said too much to each other in Washington last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin, turning 74 next week, left several things unsaid but meant. Whose voice is of the stronger man?

According to Trump, Xi, “looks strong, vibrant, and fit – Better than ever.” Trump meant that to be a contrastive compliment for the seven-years younger man,  and flattery of himself. That’s because, to Trump, it was plainly untrue from the moment Xi stepped down the stairs of his aircraft, holding very tightly to his wife’s hand and to the gangway rail. In 2014 Xi had a mountain-climbing and hiking fitness story to tell about himself to a Russian television interviewer.  

The near-total silence of reporting, analysis, and comment in Moscow on the Washington summit meeting of Russia’s principal enemy with its principal ally is an official blackout. The reason is that Putin called in the press himself last Friday evening (September 25) in St Petersburg to deliver his assessment in advance.

As Putin was speaking, Xi and Trump were visiting the National Archives in Washington, where the document display Trump officials had arranged for show had triggered official Chinese anger. This was because the original on display of the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco ending the allied war against Japan had not been signed by China; and because that, and other documents intended for presentation to Xi, failed to commit the future of Taiwan island to the Chinese government.  By that show, Xi and his principal adviser Wang Yi, understood Trump and his officials to mean they intended to rewrite the history of the war, ignore China’s intention to recover all of its territory, remilitarize Japan, and together with the US and its other allies reinforce Taiwan as a fortress and future firing platform against Beijing.

The entire display was removed before Xi and Trump arrived.  

The official White House communiqué on the visit was very precise on what was served on Xi’s plate at the White House dinner the evening before, identifying bok choy in the main course, and red dahlias on the table in celebration of  “the color red’s longstanding cultural significance throughout Chinese history.”  Trump’s communiqué on what he and Xi discussed was expressed in the future tense: “Very productive meeting with President Xi for both the U.S.A. and China. Tremendous things will be happening.”  “The meeting was one of friendship, strength, and success for both China and the USA. We will be meeting again in November in China, and then at the G20 in December, in Miami, Florida.”  

The Trump intention, as the National Archives episode is interpreted in Moscow, is yet another illustration of the US strategy to rewrite history; ignore Russia’s recovery of Crimea and the Donbass; remilitarize Germany, France, UK and other NATO allies; and prepare for permanent war.

Putin let Trump and Xi understand.  “We are not preparing for any fighting with Europe,” he said, “we have no such plans and no the reasons, most importantly, there are no real motives for the aggravation of the situation with Europe, whatever they say, whoever speaks.” Statements by Baltic state politicians are “nonsense [чушь]…However, this nonsense has become a fact of international life over many years… There is only one explanation for the attempts by certain aggressive circles to aggravate the situation: they want to continue using Ukraine and Ukrainians as cannon fodder and a tool in the fight against Russia, seeking to prevent our further development, to hinder it, to slow down Russia’s advancement.”

He then addressed Xi and Trump directly:

“Question: It is known that the President of the People’s Republic of China and the President of the United States are currently negotiating in the United States. How do you feel about this? Are you jealous? And are you going to the APEC summit in China, where you can hold a trilateral meeting between you?

Vladimir Putin: Jealousy is something from a completely different sphere, the sphere of a human nature, relations between a man and a woman. I do not think such categories are applicable in international politics. We welcome the negotiations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Why? Because these are the two largest economies in the world, and depending on the outcome of their negotiations on the contentious issues, the controversial issues stemming from the US-imposed illegitimate sanctions, and what kind of agreements are reached, this will affect the entire global economy, including our economy. Yes, our relations with the United States have almost been reduced to zero. But our trade turnover with the People’s Republic of China is US$240 billion. That’s a decent amount. And our trade keeps growing. Furthermore, we have a very important sphere for further development, both for us and for the People’s Republic of China. And, of course, the overall development of international economic relations is of great importance. Therefore, we welcome any positive agreements between China and the United States.

Remark: What about the APEC summit?

Vladimir Putin: Oh, the APEC summit. We still need to make a final decision. Everything will depend on the situation in the country, in our country. When deciding whether or not to participate in an international event, I always take into account the situation unfolding within the Russian Federation. But overall, this is a major and serious event, and I have received an invitation. I believe it will be useful to work on such a platform. I have told President Xi Jinping about this. I am inclined to take part in that event. However, as I have said, this will ultimately depend on the situation in Russia.”

Putin is making two things plain. He will not criticize either Xi or Trump; and he won’t commit to meeting the two of them together, not even on Xi’s invitation to Shenzhen for the APEC summit on November 18. He is discouraging the Russian press from further discussion of either point.

By mentioning “the US-imposed illegitimate sanctions”, Putin also said one thing Xi refused to say to Trump’s face in Washington. Instead, the Wang-drafted communiqué from Beijing announced only that the presidents “exchanged views on major international and regional issues including the situation in the Middle East, the Ukraine crisis and the Korean Peninsula.”  Xi, according to  Wang, failed to tell Trump that China will not accept attempts Trump is threatening in the new Lindsey Graham Act sanctions against China’s trade with Russia or Iran.

Can the Chinese communiqué be telling the full truth to claim that Trump’s de-escalation in South Korea was on the agenda, but US escalation of Japan’s military capabilities slipped Xi’s mind?

Trump’s version of what they said — issued as a White House “fact sheet” on September 25 — is that “President Trump urged President Xi to increase production of refined petroleum products to stabilize global supply. The United States welcomes the arrival of two giant pandas, leased by China to the Atlanta Zoo…The two leaders discussed on-going global concerns, including Russia, North Korea, and Iran. They agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and that no country or institution can be allowed to impose tolls on international waterways.  The two leaders recalled that United States and China were allies in World War II and fought side by side to win the war.  Since World War II, the United States’ forward military presence has preserved a Free and Open Indo-Pacific contributing to generations of American prosperity. The President advocated for trilateral arms control negotiations between the United States, Russia, and China.”  

The panda point is a sensitive one for the Americans. Xi had said at the White House that the pandas will come to “their new home in the Atlanta Zoo”, implying they were a permanent gift.  The next day Trump insisted there is only a lend lease.

The Russia and Iran wars are a sensitive point for the Americans and Chinese. If Xi had in fact agreed with Trump that “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and that no country or institution can be allowed to impose tolls on international waterways”, he did not want to tell his colleagues on the Communist Party Politburo in Beijing or the Chinese people that he had either said as much, or as little.

In one of the only open media comments published so far in Moscow, a little known analyst “described the results of the Trump–Xi Jinping talks as modest… No clearly defined position was developed on such sensitive issues as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other delicate topics. The event turned out to be truly representative, but the substantive content turned out to be much more modest. Following the summit, Beijing and Washington managed to postpone direct confrontation only for a short time. Although the Chinese side is making concessions, it intends to drag out the process of stabilizing relations with the United States for years, hoping to further strengthen its position during this time.”  

Pussyfooting is not what the Russian intelligence agencies, the General Staff, and Putin’s Security Council are required to do.

Their assessment is that Xi is not a singularly strong decision-maker and cannot negotiate with Trump without the consensus of the Politburo behind him. That consensus sat beside Xi at the meetings with Trump – Wang Yi, heading foreign policy at the Politburo; He Lifeng, heading economic policy; and Cai Qi, heading the staff secretariat.  Indian intelligence assessments and the rare Chinese analyst  concur that Xi is politically weak, that “no one is in charge”, that the Chinese economy is vulnerable to US trade sanctions, and that the policy consensus on display in Washington was the Politburo’s maximum, plus Xi’s postponement.

Putin’s press statement places a Russian veil over this understanding.

Click to listen or view the discussion with Nima Alhkorshid, broadcast on Tuesday evening Moscow time.  

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by Editor - Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

An international  platform for national upstarts to upstage each other – trained roosters clawing at each other in a cockpit surrounded by money bettors.

This comes every September when the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) holds what it calls High-Level Week and the General Debate.

Lame ducks can pretend to be roosters. For example, “I have a big decision to make”, President Donald Trump told the General Debate. “Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before?  Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly.”

Unnoticed outside the cockpit, there was a serious meeting between the Russian and US foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Marco Rubio. Rubio’s official communiqué said how serious the meeting was by saying next to nothing.   Rubio’s earlier meeting with the Bolivian president was reported in a communiqué of 10 lines; with the Kenyan president, 9;  with the Italian foreign minister, 7; and with the Indian foreign minister, 6.   

In his press conference later, Rubio revealed nothing of what he had heard from Lavrov.  Instead, by repeating what Trump and Vladimir Zelensky have been repeating publicly and to each other,  ignoring Lavrov, Rubio aimed to conceal the change in Russia’s line which had been spelled out to the Americans.

This new thinking isn’t new for the Russians. But for Americans used to hearing President Vladimir Putin’s negotiators Kirill Dmitriev and Yury Ushakov do the  talking in private, it’s a problem Trump, Rubio and their associates have not been anticipating. They have been calculating on luring Putin to a summit meeting with Trump in Miami in mid-December, when the G20 summit conference is scheduled. Putin isn’t agreeing.

Rubio told the press after his meeting with Lavrov he’s not confident.  “That [meeting] hasn’t been discussed,” Rubio said. He was lying; Lavrov said so.  

“Look, the President of the United States,” said Rubio, “this President is willing to engage and meet with virtually anyone…In order to solve problems, you have to meet with people that you disagree with or the people that you might have some issues with.  So, we’ve invited President Putin to the G20.  We think it’s an opportunity for him to engage not just with the President but with other world leaders.  We hope that’s an invitation he’ll accept.  There’s an opportunity in December if that happens… the ideal would be a meeting in which there will be a result, an outcome, and a lot of that means there has to be a lot of work that goes into it beforehand.”   

Lavrov had just told Rubio what the Kremlin means by “beforehand work.”  Rubio hasn’t liked what he heard.

For a start, Lavrov told Rubio to his face that Trump will be a lame duck president in six weeks’ time, after the November 3 congressional election. “The parties also discussed preparation for the G20 events scheduled later this year,” Lavrov’s communiqué announced. That’s December 14-15, five weeks after the election. Lavrov and other Russian officials are waiting expectantly for that.  

“The Russian party,” Lavrov told Rubio, “emphasised the importance of normalising bilateral relations as soon as possible, in line with the agreements reached by the Russian and US presidents.” This is Lavrov’s reference to Trump’s summit meeting with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025, and the refusal since then on the American side, particularly by Rubio’s State Department,  to agree to any form of bilateral normalisation. Lavrov was telling Rubio that no deal with Trump has been honoured before Trump had lost any of his powers to his opponents in Congress, so no  deal can be expected after November 3.

Compared to the line Dmitriev and Ushakov have been telling the Americans that Putin has decided, Lavrov was saying there’s new thinking, new line.

In the podcast with Jamarl Thomas, recorded on Thursday morning, Washington, DC, time, the evidence is picked out of the cockpit noise from New York, and from the Lavrov communiqué explained word by word.

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by Editor - Thursday, September 24th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Greenland is to be the newest US and NATO drone and missile launcher against Russia.

According to the preamble of the agreement with Denmark and the Prime Minister of Greenland, signed by President Donald Trump on Tuesday (September 22), Russia is now an outsider in the Arctic region ruled by the US and NATO —   an “adversary” whose existence on land, sea, and air is a “strategic” threat and “security challenge”.

This Russian adversary in the region, but not of the region, is to be neutralized and counter-attacked by “planning, presence, exercises, and joint intelligence gathering.”

“Recognizing,” the treaty text declares,  “the irreplaceable role the United States military plays in the defense of the territory of Greenland now and in the future…[and] recognizing the security challenges in the Arctic and the High North posed by adversaries’ increased military activity and growing strategic interest in the region…[and] Recognizing the Parties’ shared interest in allowing the United States to have military access to the territory of Greenland to the extent necessary to defend the North Atlantic Treaty area, Greenland, and the American continent, including through establishment of a Golden Dome defense system,” Trump will now expand the US space war-fighting base on Greenland, build at least two new military bases, and establish an unlimited number of “unmanned military installations”.

In addition, the US will take control over all land, sea, and air movement on and around the island; regulate and direct all building construction, mining and economic activities; and run special CIA and military force operations “to counter espionage in Greenland.”  US personnel will be under US law, not local law, and by incorporating the 1951 US-Denmark pact, “nothing in this Agreement is to be interpreted as affecting command relationships.”  

This means direct US military rule of Greenland as a Russia war-fighting platform to a far greater degree than has been possible for the US and the NATO allies to achieve to date in the Ukraine.

Russia as the lead adversary, but also China and other non-NATO states, are to be barred from a “persistent presence”, not only of military forces but of investment in “Particularly Sensitive Sectors or Activities in the territory of Greenland (including the Territorial Waters).”  Greenland’s dominant export is fish and crustaceans; China is the island economy’s most valuable destination for exports and source of imports. Russia-bound fish exports were stopped on orders from the Danish government in 2022, after the Special Military Operation. Tourism is Greenland’s second largest revenue earner; that is now likely to be overtaken by American military spending on new construction, maintenance of existing facilities, and personnel.   

If the Greenlanders object, resist, and vote themselves to be an independent state, they won’t escape the US empire.

“In case Greenland exercises its right to self-determination to become independent, the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark and the Government of Greenland shall together ensure that the independent Greenlandic state will (i) agree to remain in NATO, including by applying to become a member if necessary, and (ii) affirmatively assume, as from the date of independence, all of the rights and obligations of the Kingdom of Denmark specified in this Agreement, including any implementation agreements or arrangements between the Parties, as well as the Defense Arrangements.”  

This is how the Trump White House is advancing against the Kremlin despite Trump claiming himself that on the Ukraine war front, he is set to negotiate a “deal.”  In a press conference with Vladimir Zelensky on Tuesday, he claimed: “I think they’re going to make a deal and I don’t want to say what the deal is. We talk about it a lot, including with President Putin, and I think something’s going to happen.”  

In the new podcast on The Red Pill Diaries with Rasheed Muhammad, we elaborate new thinking on how the war is going on the Ukraine front, the Arctic front, the Polish front, in the western propaganda media, and in the pro-Russia podcasts. Click to view or listen: https://www.youtube.com/live/juHtMR5UBKI?is=-Smuddb5zjXJupw0 

Would an escalation of Russian drone and missile attacks on NATO targets outside the Ukraine contribute to the root-cause and long-term security objectives of the Special Military Operation?

Unlikely is the answer: the Polish example is spelled out of how the remilitarization of the economy,  the establishment of new US force bases, fabrication of Russian invasion threats, and ingratiation of Trump are  serving the political ambition of Radosław Sikorski – currently the foreign minister and most popular candidate for the prime ministry — to become the head of government at the Polish elections next year.  With comparable domestic political dynamics illustrated in Germany, France, and the UK, it is a mistake to predict that direct Russian escalation on targets in those countries would deter their governments, military industrial complexes, political parties,  and voters from the present course.

by Editor - Thursday, September 24th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Blind man’s buff is an old game of parlour warfare in which the combatants try to tag the blind one, the buffer, and then hide. If they are caught, they are out of the game. The buffer wins when he’s tagged them all out. Hiding in plain sight, making deceptive noises to disguise their positions, are common tactics for staying in the game.

At the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, all the allies in the war against Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea are playing the game. The blindfold is tied across the eyes of the mainstream media, and also President Donald Trump’s.

Vladimir Zelensky tagged him on Tuesday afternoon. “I hope that we will end this war,” he said in front of the press, “and President Trump will help us to end this war. And I think that we needed to do as quick as possible, before winter.”  

“Before winter. Big thing, before winter,” Trump fell for the tag.

Endorsing the Zelensky regime and its drone operations against the Russian hinterland,  Trump added: “I think they’re going to make a deal and I don’t want to say what the deal is. We talk about it a lot, including with President Putin, and I think something’s going to happen. But certainly, they are very good fighters. Really, they can be proud of themselves regardless. We’ll see what happens, but very, very capable people, very capable leadership.”

Tagged by a British reporter, Trump said former Prime Minister Keir Starmer had been “too tough.” He then endorsed the successor, Andrew Burnham, to his face.  “I think he’s going to be good. I will say, he’s on your side very much…We are with you all the way, Mr. Prime Minister…[US-UK relations are] more up now than they were with your last prime minister.”  

Tagged to say why he doesn’t ban US exports of diesel to lower domestic prices, Trump played pretend. “Well, I’ve called for that too. I said, let’s not send out the diesel.”  That is not the presidential executive order that is required. The US oil lobby and Trump’s Energy Secretary are adamantly opposed to an executive order.  

In the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, recorded on Tuesday morning before Trump’s afternoon meetings with Zelensky and Burnham, we discuss the game being played and take the blindfold off.  

The discussion anticipated Trump’s agreement with Denmark and Greenland for the new Arctic front against Russia.  “We are strengthening our common security, boosting our common deterrence, showing our adversaries who we are,” tagged Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, “and we are doing it together. Mr. President, you have been very clear, you don’t want adversaries to come too close…and with this deal, they are not. We are making sure that they will not be allowed to get any control or significant influence in Greenland. And we are making sure that more allies are present in the Arctic at the same time.”  

We were also broadcasting before Trump declared in his formal UN speech: “I have a big decision to make. Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before?  Maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East, or even the world. Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations? But I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn’t make sense for them not to.”

“They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realize is that I’m not running. I did that already and won in a landslide. We won in a giant landslide, and I’ll be here for two and a half years. The Republican Party is running and I’ll be helping them, but I am not running. I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn’t even enter my mind.”

As all the taggers can see, Trump has knotted his blindfold tight.

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by Editor - Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

A new drone has appeared on the European battlefield.

With lightweight warhead and jet propulsion, it has almost unlimited range, and Circular Error Probability (CEP) of less than 10 millimetres. When it strikes the brain, it doesn’t kill or maim. It preserves the target’s motor functions but renders it senseless. That’s the battlefield medicine term for BS – brainwashed stupidity.

In statements just issued by Gennady Zyuganov (lead image, front), leader-for-life of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), and by Marine Le Pen (rear left) and Jordan Bardella (rear centre), leaders of the Rassemblement National (RN – National Rally), the leading opposition parties of Russia and France have announced to their voters that they should abandon their minds before they too are hit by new drones.

In his briefing on Monday on the results of the Russian parliamentary election, Zyuganov also warned Communist voters against skepticism and criticism — “not to distort the election results with shoddy work.”   

In a declaration to French voters which Le Pen and Bardella issued on Saturday, September 19,  they attacked Russia for escalating drone incidents in Germany, Poland and “several European countries”; for disinformation operations “seeking to make support for Ukraine appear as the cause of the escalation they themselves are orchestrating”; for “hostile action” “against the interests of France and the nations of Europe”, and “to directly or indirectly dictate our country’s policy through intimidation, threats, destabilization or psychological pressure”.  

This is the first such declaration by RN, which leads the current polls for the French presidential election next April with about 34%.  This is ten percentage points ahead of the French left coalition of socialists, communists, and greens, known as the Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front, NFP).

The switch to support remilitarization of Europe for permanent war against Russia is also taking place inside Germany’s leading vote-getter, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) led by Sven Tritschler (rear right), now deputy party leader.

In the new podcast with Pelle Neroth Taylor in Stockholm, the discussion provides headgear  protection against the new drone attacks and a brain health check for viewers and listeners. Click to start.  

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by Editor - Monday, September 21st, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Nothing succeeds so consistently and so badly at changing the hearts, minds, and votes of people than bombing them.

It’s a conclusion that the 316 volumes of the US Strategic Bombing Survey of 1944-45  came to about the enemies of that time, the Germans and Japanese, very reluctantly.  

In announcing the victory of the United Russia party (Единая Россия, ER) after the weekend election, Dmitry Medvedev (lead image, centre*), former president, deputy head of the Security Council, and ER party chairman, made the point emphatically. “Over the past few days the enemy has made titanic, colossal efforts to undermine the outcome of the election. But as has been rightly said, this has only served to unite the voters, to unite our people. This, I suppose, is the most important outcome of the election.”  

This has been the lesson since the Italian empire launched the first air bombing against the Libyans in 1911, followed by the French empire in Syria and Morocco, the British empire in India, Afghanistan,  and Iraq, and then against the Russia (with poison gas munitions) in 1919.   Now it’s the US empire against Iran and Israel against Gaza.

But in the latest versions, this isn’t strategic bombing at all – not the application of air weapons for the deterrence, destruction and defeat of the warfighting capacities of the target state. Instead, it’s exterminism – the destruction of the people on the other side by decapitation and genocide.

This exterminism has always been the tacit objective of bombing by the empires aiming to take territory and its resources, eliminate the people on the ground and in the way. Imperial bombers like Winston Churchill, Arthur Harris, his chief of Bomber Command, and Curtis LeMay, the US Strategic Air Command chief, were explicit in their advocacy of exterminism.

The failure of exterminism in the mouths and warfighting operations of Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, their western allies, financiers and armourers, isn’t readily admitted now. In time it will be. But Trump’s miscalculation over this weekend – implemented in Kiev by the Anglo-American staffs advising and assisting the record swarms of drones attacking Russia during the three-day election – this is too obvious to miss.

Trump missed it. He spent Friday and Sunday striking golf balls.  He also had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Zelensky on Sunday: “An important conversation, and we got through a lot,” Zelensky announced. “We agreed to meet in New York, and this meeting could change a lot. There is diplomatic momentum.”    Trump’s approval of the escalation of attacks on Russian targets is implied in this Washington report.  

Trump also tweeted that he has redesigned his “Triumphal Arch” into a firing platform “to house, store, and have the rapid ability to use large numbers of drones, plus Snipers, on both the roof and plaza areas, and additionally have and hold large quantities of sniper ammunition in storage. There will be no facility like this anywhere in the World. Out of the 59 top cities and Capitals, Washington, D.C., IS THE ONLY ONE IN THE WORLD THAT DOES NOT HAVE A TRIUMPHAL ARCH, but it will now and, by far, the greatest of them all!”  

This is also what the US and NATO are redesigning for the Ukraine – exterminism reversed, a firing platform like nowhere in the world, a permanent warfighter against Russia without a people.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, there were US and NATO-guided 1,951 drone and 8 cruise missile attacks on Russia September 19-20, and were shot down; no count of the additional number of drones striking targets has been reported.  This is a one-night record for Churchill-Harris-LeMay type warfighting operations against Russia. Roughly one-quarter of the drones were fired at Moscow.

The Russian polling results realised — after the count of two-thirds of the ballots — indicate that voter turnout has risen to 56.7%; this is well ahead of the pre-election pollster forecasts of between 51% and 53%. It is a 10% increase over the pre-war State Duma election in 2021; a 20% increase over voter turnout in the Duma election of 2016. United Russia (ER) has increased its proportional vote to 57.7%, up 16% on the last election. The leading opposition party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), has fallen by 27% to 13.8%. The aggregate vote of the four main opposition parties is 35.8%; this compares with 39.2% in 2021.

The extent of voter opposition to Kremlin domestic policies has not diminished. But under enemy attack, the Russian voter has endorsed the priority of military escalation. “In order to disrupt the democratic expression of will by the citizens of the Russian Federation in the elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the Kiev regime attempted a large‑scale attack on the territory of the Russian Federation on September 19 and 20 of this year, using UAVs [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle] and Flamingo cruise missiles…The attempt at a large‑scale attack on Moscow failed. The enemy did not achieve its goals. In response to attacks by the Kiev regime on civilian facilities on Russian territory, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue and intensify strikes with precision-guided weapons against military facilities in Kiev.”  

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by Editor - Sunday, September 20th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

From which direction does the sun come up each day?

That was one of the questions in the battery of tests which was  used on patients to diagnose the onset of Alzheimer’s Disease. An answer confusing east and west was a symptom of that brain disease.

The question comes up today as a test of that other brain disease, equally terminal, known as brainwashing.

Israeli mappers, assured that their god placed them in his chosen land in the middle of the world, are uncomfortable with the regional term “Middle East” because it places them uncomfortably surrounded by their enemies, the Arabs, the Iranians, and the Turks.  The alternative term, “West Asia”, is also discomfiting because it places god’s holy land offside —  as if the Jewish god were residing in Beijing,  Delhi or Washington, DC, and was looking askance when the wars were fought that put,  and continue to keep,  Israel on the map.

For the time being, the gods who reside in those imperial cities insist on keeping the term “Middle East” in English, 中东 (Zhōngdōng) in Chinese, and मध्य पूर्व क्षेत्र (Madhya Poorv Kshetra) in Hindi.  

In this month’s declaration by BRICS, there is only one reference to the “Global South”. On the map for global southerners that should replace the Middle East as the Midcentre – that is, east of the Mediterranean (this “Middle Earth” term hasn’t been replaced yet);  south of Central Asia, north of Africa, equidistant between Europe and America. Instead, the BRICS declaration in English presented  the Middle East and West Asia as equivalents:  “We express deep concern over the continued escalation of tensions in Middle East/West Asia .”   

The Russian geopolitical term, Ближневосточный регион (blizhnevostochny region) means the near east, as distinct from the far east (Дальний Восток, Dalniy Vostok), which for Russians includes India, China, Japan, Vietnam, Korea. At the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a fortnight before the BRICS summit, the Russian for “Near East” was used in the final declaration reference to the Middle East. “West Asia” (Западная Азия) is nowhere in Russian.

Everyone is agreed that the sun continues to come up in the east, but the gods of the empires don’t agree.  On September 1, President Vladimir Putin called them, not gods, but “sharks of imperialism”.  But not even the Russian Communist Party, which originated the term in the expressions of Lenin and Stalin, has quoted or discussed Putin’s mention since he said it.

Still, if it’s the sharks who are trying to change the map of the war fronts, then Russian resistance, self-defence,  and allied defence against the geographical expansion of the exterminating armies and navies of the US and Israel —  “knocking the teeth out of the sharks”, as Putin recommended —  should refer to the sharks of the Middle East and the Blizhny Vostok (Ближний Восток).

In the new podcast with Fiorella Isabel and Vanessa Beeley, recorded on Friday morning Middle East time, we plot the shark tracks on the map, and discuss what is to be done to knock their teeth out.

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by Editor - Friday, September 18th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

When President Donald Trump blames Vladimir Zelensky for the diesel crisis in the US, he is more than scapegoating the wrong man. He is revealing he has no October Surprise – no peace deal for the Russia-Ukraine war, no peace deal with Iran,  no peace deal with Yemen – to save his majority in the US Congress on November 3.

Asked by a reporter on September 13 if  the Russia-Ukraine war “could end sooner”, Trump was evasive, replying: “The problem I have with Ukraine and Russia is that, you know, a lot of the diesel comes, diesel oil comes, and that’s the one where there’s a, a big up, uh, it comes from Russia. And the Russia just, uh, plants are being hit by Ukraine. And I’ve asked President Zelensky not to hit the diesel plants, refineries.”  

Trump was repeating himself. The day before on September 12, he had said: “Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. Wait a minute. You want, can I talk? Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel ’cause he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel. This isn’t done by the Middle East, this is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine. So, uh, we spoke to Mr. Zelensky about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world. We don’t want him to hit diesel fuel.” 

Zelensky ignored him, encouraged by his US target intelligence advisers, his CIA and Pentagon liaison officers.  

On September 15, the Ukrainian General Staff announced they had carried out a  new drone strike on the Syzran oil refinery in Samara.  It was the fourth such attack this year on Syzran, a regional fuel producer owned by Rosneft.

As Russia had stopped diesel exports on July 8, and the volume of diesel produced at Syzran is small, the Ukrainian strike will have no impact on falling diesel inventories and accelerating diesel prices in the US. Nor can Trump’s public blame for Zelensky save him from the rising tide of votes against the Republican candidates, especially in Senate battleground states which are super-sensitive to the cost of diesel like Maine and Alaska.

One reason for Trump’s failure is that the world’s largest exporter of diesel is the US itself.   His  scapegoating conceals his protection of war and price profiteering on the part of the lead US diesel refiners and exporters – Marathon, Valero, Phillips, and ExxonMobil. They have been exporting diesel abroad in preference to selling it at home because the price profit is greater.  Their share prices are zooming as a result – Marathon by 128% in the year to date; Valero by 152%, Phillips by 102%, and ExxonMobil by 51%.

The second reason is that Iran by halting oil tanker shipments out of the Persian Gulf at Hormuz, and Ansar Allah by doing the same to Saudi shipments out of the Red Sea at Bab el Mandeb, have cut an even larger share of the diesel export market globally than the US share – fractionally, about one-third compared to one-seventh.

The third reason is related: as both Russia and China are withholding their diesel exports for the protection of their domestic markets, India, the second largest refiner and exporter of diesel after the US, is determined to import as much Russian and Iranian crude as it can get past the US and NATO sanctions. Even so, the principal Indian refineries are already running at well over their production capacities: they cannot produce more. The US and NATO war against Russian tankers on the high seas and the US threat of secondary sanctions against India for buying Russian oil will have to be suspended.  

In this way,  Trump’s wars are not winning abroad but they are defeating him at home.

The October Surprise, the term of invention in US politics for swinging undecided voters in the last weeks before November Election Day,  remains a Trump White House hope, supported in statements from Kiev  and also from Moscow.

 In the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, aired on Monday afternoon ET, we discuss why this time round,  Trump’s vulnerabilities and the number of wars he is fighting make a surprise unlikely to be a rescue.

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by Editor - Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Summit meetings are always circus rings. BRICS India 2026, just concluded in Delhi, is no different from BRICS Brasil 2025 nor from BRICS China 2027.

There’s another political constant. The BRICS summit leaders, especially President Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aim to be a combination of ringmaster and elephant, never the clown.

But here’s the political variable, the counter-factual, the What-if question:

If BRICS were an anti-imperialist collective, as Putin recently emphasized for Russia to “knock the teeth out of the imperialist sharks”,  what should the new BRICS Declaration have said, and on the evidence of what the Declaration did say and didn’t, who has turned out to be the ringmaster, the elephant and the clown?

From the point of view of the audience – that’s you — is there a difference between them?

In the new Reason2Resist podcast, recorded on Monday morning, Moscow and Athens time, Dimitri Lascaris and I go beyond the clowning – smiles and hand-holding – and record what the ringmaster announced and what the elephant did with his feet.

We also record whose teeth are getting knocked out on the Ukraine war front, the Persian Gulf front, the Yemen front, and the Lebanon front, and we make a dental count of the teeth remaining inside the jaws of President Donald Trump and his allies, Mohammed Bin Salman, Marshal Asim Munir, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

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by Editor - Monday, September 14th, 2026
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