

By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
The rupturing of the aorta which killed US Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11 causes sudden, excruciating pain across the chest; the internal bleeding causes death so rapidly most victims cannot be saved.
Graham’s fate is now to be inflicted by rapid enactment by the US Senate and House of the 500% tariff of the Graham sanctions bill on countries buying Russian oil, gas, uranium, coal, nickel, food grains. The pain is aimed principally at China, India, Turkey.
The bleeding to death is planned to be the fate of President Vladimir Putin and Russia.
The Kremlin and its official media have issued no comment. Oleg Tsarev, the Ukrainian opposition leader in Crimean exile, published a death notice identifying the “very influential club”, to which Graham belonged, in which “there are no women or children. A very influential club.”
Putin’s negotiator with the Trump administration for sanctions relief, Kirill Dmitriev, has fallen uncharacteristically silent without publishing a tweet for 48 hours.
Over the same period, press reports have appeared in the Middle East confirming that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decided to transfer his Russian S-400 batteries to one of three US allies in the war against Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE or Qatar; and to have ordered Turkish forces to raise their flag at bases surrounding the Russian naval base at Tartous and the Russian airbase at Khmeimim, near Latakia on the Syrian coast.
Responding to criticism of Putin for “betraying” the General Staff on retaining the Syrian bases and on supporting Iran against its enemies, a Moscow source commented: “The official justification for Putin’s approval [of the resale of the S-400 systems delivered to Turkey between 2017 and 2019 but never fired] will be as hypocritical as the Americans — it will be a ‘defensive weapon’ to be used in ‘specified circumstances only.’ And that’s it. I expect no limits to what the Kremlin will stoop in their money-making now. You can expect, a year from now, Russian S-400s and 500s will be sold direct to the Emiratis and Saudis. No doubt about it. Strictly speaking, the Turks do not have to do a resale. They will say they are giving military defensive cover, jointly with Europe and the US, to the Arabs; the Russians will go along with that. Putin’s problem is more urgent: he has to win the war in Ukraine to have any say in anything anywhere. If he doesn’t decide on this now, he’s Gorbachev 1985, waiting to be dismembered and sold in pieces to the Arabs, Turks, Europeans, and Chinese.”
Another Moscow source has been reporting the anticipation among Security Council officials that Putin must agree to the General Staff’s escalation options “within days”.
In this timing, by coincidence or by calculation, the Russian oligarchs supporting Putin have published an appeal to him with strings attached. These have been spelled out by Andrei Melnichenko and published by The Economist on July 9. Melnichenko warns Putin, and also the Graham sanctioneers in the White House and Congress, against four “scenarios” – “a humiliated Russia, lingering on the periphery of the West”, “Russia in China’s orbit”, “the fragmentation of Russia, which would rapidly become unmanageable”, and “Russia to become a fortress: closed, mobilised, in permanent siege”.
Moscow sources believe there are more options than these.
They say the Security Council has proposed to Putin to decide that if he is not to face slow bleeding defeat, he must commit now to “complete Russian victory cutting Ukraine off from Europe, NATO and the US; decapitation or exile for the Zelensky regime; and for Kiev and the main cities to be run in the manner the US runs Iraq. That victory brings military to power in Moscow.”
This is anathema to the oligarch base on which Putin has depended until now, when, Moscow sources agree, that is impossible.
“Melnichenko is speaking at the behest of the state oligarchs clan of which [First Deputy Prime Minister Denis] Manturov is the face and coordinator”, according to one source. “They know [Roman] Abramovich is not the right person to intermediate. They want to retain their external wealth and their Russian assets so they are floating a ‘nothing and everything is possible’ balloon – if need be, to open a platform independent of Putin, but if he will come to an accommodation, so much the better.”
They are worried, a source in a position to know claims, by “the prospect of a entire shift toward a Chinese-style takeover by a military-nationalist alliance, the state takeover of all oligarch assets, a change of leadership at Rosneft and the state banks. This may not be plausible for the Kremlin. But it is being floated now. And there are other scenarios which the oligarchs also oppose. One would be for Putin to preserve his continuity in power on striking a grand deal with India and China. The Indians will show the middle finger to the Americans if the Chinese will but not alone. Putin will have to join, too.”
Another Moscow source suggests Melnichenko’s pitch looks to “be orchestrated by the British – they might have his balls in a nutcracker and they are putting him up to it now to test some of Putin’s allies and high-ranking bureaucrats. The usefulness of [Mikhail] Fridman, [Pyotr] Aven, [Roman] Abramovich has expired. There must be several other plays in the works and [Melnichenko] could be the chosen one to make the next move.”
That’s for later, the source adds. “Right now the problem for Putin is that in facing the war which the US and NATO are escalating against him, they have a succession objective, but he does not. Putin has created no successor.”






















