The vessel’s management company, Minerva Maritime, was asked today to confirm whether the cargo the Minerva Zen is discharging is diesel or liquid fertilizer.The company answered through Navigate Response, the press representative for Minerva Marine. According to Katerina Skourtanioti, the Minerva Zen “was transporting a liquid fertiliser cargo, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and not diesel.”
by Editor - Monday, October 12th, 2026 No Comments »
There has been breaking news since the podcasts with Dimitri Lascaris and Nima Alkhorshid analysing the telephone agreement on Russian diesel shipments to the US between President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump.
The diesel dealmaking had been under way for at least three weeks before the terms reached Putin and Trump to decide on Friday evening, Moscow time, October 9. Read more.
The podcasts followed on Saturday. Click to view or listen to Reason2Resist recorded at 9 am Moscow time, Saturday. Then live from midnight Moscow time, Dialogue Works.
Subsequently, it has been discovered and reported that a shipment of 36,000 metric tons of diesel had been loaded on the Minerva Zen, a Greek-owned and flagged tanker, in St Petersburg, which then set sail into the Atlantic in the direction of the east coast of the US, on September 22. That was seventeen days before Trump and Putin (lead image, right) reportedly concluded their deal for staged diesel shipments, commencing with a target of 300,000 tonnes in the month of October.
The Minerva Zen, according to maritime trackers, was scheduled to arrive at Wilmington, North Carolina, on Sunday evening, local time, October 11. Last year, the vessel had been carrying Russian petroleum products to Brazil. It is unclear whether Brazil was its original destination when it left St. Petersburg, and if it had received a diversion order from the Kremlin. It is also unclear who authorized the vessel to load and leave with diesel on September 22 when the Kremlin’s ban on diesel exports, introduced on July 8, was still in effect.
It is reported that Kirill Dmitriev (lead image, left), Putin’s special negotiator with Steven Witkoff (lead image, left), Jared Kushner, the Trump family, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been negotiating terms of sanctions waivers for Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports for several months — unsuccessfully. However, during Dmitriev’s trip to New York in September they negotiated terms of an agreement on a diesel fuel waiver for Trump to discuss with Putin on Friday. When precisely the terms were agreed, and when the Minerva Zen was ordered into Wilmington port, aren’t known yet.
Dmitriev met Witkoff and Kushner in New York on September 29, Tass reported. He then went to Washington where he held “a series of meetings…including with US Treasury and Energy Department officials, sources familiar with the talks told TASS. They discussed Russian-US economic cooperation.”
By then the Minerva Zen was already one week at sea, sailing at an average speed of less than 2 knots.
On September 25, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said that a deal trading US sanctions relief of Russian diesel for a Black Sea and energy infrastructure ceasefire was unacceptable to Russian negotiators. “If we are talking about saturating international markets with Russian diesel fuel, about export ban lifting, it is not enough to simply provide for domestic needs, diesel fuel reserves, and open diesel fuel exports. The safety of navigation in the Black Sea should be concurrently provided. But even that is not enough. For international markets to be saturated, the diesel should come there unhindered, that is, without any sanctions, without any restrictions, and so on. Therefore, only a comprehensive solution is possible here.”
The Minerva Zen’s diesel cargo represents just 12% of the volume Trump has said has been agreed with Putin for the month of October. Yury Ushakov, another of the Kremlin negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner, told reporters after the Friday call “I am afraid I cannot fully satisfy your curiosity, colleagues, by revealing all the details of the specific issues discussed by the two presidents.”
Dmitriev has tweeted in celebration of Trump’s terms and of himself: “President Trump’s peacemaking efforts and clarity give a strong impetus to PEACE.” “In 2020, Presidents Putin and Trump jointly stabilized oil prices and markets. Today, they continue their work. The diesel supply agreement showcases the power of economic cooperation between Russia and the US and its benefits to people and the world. Cooperation will prevail.” “President Trump joins the many who believe that Ukraine needs leadership actually focused on peace, not Zelensky’s warmongering: ‘It’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.’ Iconic and historic.”
Peskov responded to the announcement of the diesel deal which Witkoff and Kushner had discussred with Ukrainian officials in Miami on Friday, just before the presidential telcon. “ ‘We know that they are holding talks with the Ukrainians in the United States today. There allegedly are some comprehensive plans and ideas for a settlement. If these are indeed discussed in Miami, and if the American negotiators deem it necessary to share them in Moscow, then, of course, come on over,’ he added.”
The day before, Peskov had dismissed proposals from the Indian foreign minister for an “energy ceasefire” as “piecemeal”. “We have also repeatedly said at various levels that we favor a comprehensive solution rather than a piecemeal one, a solution that would lead to a lasting settlement for many, many years, for decades.”
From maritime industry sources, it is now certain the Minerva Zen’s cargo will be discharged on Monday and Tuesday of this week at the fuel terminal in Wilmington owned by Jared Donnelly and his family. Donnelly has been rewarded by substantial donations to the Trump campaigns by the appointment of Donnelly as the US Ambassador to New Zealand.
In the meantime, Russian and Ukrainian sources have reported that there was a Ukrainian attack with more than 50 drones on a Russian oil loading terminal in Rostov region on Saturday evening, several hours after the presidents had spoken.
The next evening, Sunday, the Ukrainian attack involved more than 900 drones on Russian targets, but reportedly no refineries or other energy infrastructure. In Vladimir, the electric, heat and water supply was disrupted, and a third data centre of Yandex (previously hit in the Ryazan and Kaluga regions) was also attacked. In Lysychansk, 2 civilians were killed and 13 others were injured. There were fires on the territory of the airport in Sochi; also the wreckage of the drone fell on the territory of private homes and hotels in the area. There were no casualties.”
Over the same Sunday evening, the Russian operations struck at “8 regions of Ukraine at night. In 4 districts of Kiev, emergency shutdowns were introduced after Russian strikes. In the Buchansky district, the warehouses of the Synthesis Group were burned by the Geran-5 strikes. The Tenet data centre in Odessa was hit; in the port of Chernomorsk dry cargo stocks were attacked…Locomotives in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk region are affected.”
Energy infrastructure targets hit included the Kievskaya electric substation in Kiev and the turbines of the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant and a gas pipeline passing through the territory of the plant.
Trump tweeted on Sunday afternoon, his time: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Independent military blogger AMP Mapping responded, corroborating Tsarev’s reports: “In case it wasn’t already obvious, Trump’s statement about an energy ceasefire is a lie. Russian Geran-4/5 jet-drones have been attacking various energy facilities in Ukraine, including the TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant near Kharkov, the 750 kV Kievskaya Substation, and the 330 kV Novokievskaya Substation, among others.”
Zelensky responded to Trump’s ceasefire claim through the Israeli-American propaganda sheet, Axios: “It was news to me. But if the Russians agree, Ukraine will also agree. Let us know when the truce begins.”
Peskov replied: “Vladimir Zelensky is currently hysterical and incapable of taking deliberate action; if he were rational, he would be open to peace talks, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vesti reporter Pavel Zarubin. ‘Zelensky, naturally, being in a state of hysteria, is hardly capable of taking any deliberate actions right now. If he were capable of doing so, he would show a willingness to engage in peace talks,’ the spokesman noted.”
Repeating Trump, Dmitriev tweeted: “The Ukrainian election is coming.”
Ukrainian, European, and British officials then told the Financial Times in London to report that “the Trump administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe. The officials, who received calls from American officials on Saturday and Sunday or were briefed on them, said the US was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls. The US message, the officials added, included threats to cut off intelligence sharing and PURL — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine. ‘They are calling Kyiv…they are calling everyone [in Europe]’ said an official who received a call from a US defence official. PURL is a NATO-managed initiative through which Kyiv’s allies purchase US-made weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. The US does not make a financial contribution to the fund. One person who said he was contacted by US officials was Pavlo Palisa, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s military adviser and former general of Ukraine’s 93rd mechanised brigade.”
The telephone call which President Donald Trump has been trying to make to President Vladimir Putin since the morning of October 7, and which the Kremlin spokesman refused to confirm each day since, was such a surprise when it happened on Friday evening, the Kremlin kept it secret from the Russian press until Trump spoke first.
Putin’s foreign policy advisor, Yury Ushakov, who has briefed Russian reporters after the presidential telephone conversations, did not appear as he usually does. He came later.
An announcement – unusually titled “A Statement by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin” — was posted by the Kremlin at 10:50 in the evening Moscow time (3:50pm in Washington, DC) to reveal the call had occurred. “During a telephone conversation with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, on October 9, considerable attention has been paid to the prospects for settlement the Ukrainian crisis, the situation around Iran and various aspects of bilateral relations. In the discussion of the state of affairs in the world energy sector the Russian side confirmed their willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets. I [Putin] am sure that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.”
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s advisor for negotiations with the Trump family and the US oligarchs, started a stream of celebration tweets. “President Putin and President Trump just had a successful call. Russia-US energy and economic cooperation will continue and benefit global markets and the world,” he began.
Dmitriev retweeted Trump’s announcement: “I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.”
The timing of Trump’s tweet suggests the call began at about 8:30 pm Moscow time. Ushakov says it lasted 90 minutes. The Kremlin delayed its first statement for almost an hour. Ushakov delayed for another hour.
The Kremlin and Dmitriev omitted to say if Putin’s decision to break the export ban on Russian diesel, in place since July 8, authorizes the release of diesel being held in Russia’s oil company or state strategic reserves. Dmitriev didn’t say if the tonnage for release will be measured in US imperial or metric. He ignored one of the top-secret conditions in Trump’s tweet: “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.”
That’s a signal that Putin told Trump to stop the Zelensky regime, with NATO and US intelligence and targeting, from striking at Russian oil refineries, port terminals and oil tankers from now until next year. Trump didn’t quite agree and promise Putin to do that. The Russian General Staff, intelligence agencies, and the Security Council aren’t sure that a Trump ceasefire order will go down the line and be enforced in Kiev.
Dmitriev then tweeted in celebration of the announcement from the US Treasury’s sanctions office (OFAC) of a new “General License 13S” lifting US sanctions on Russian tankers and on China, India, Turkey and other states’ purchasing of Russian crude oil, petroleum products, gas and other commodities “through 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time, January 9, 2027.”
The OFAC wording doesn’t restrict the sanctions relief to diesel. It omits to specify what Russian exports are covered by “such transactions are ordinarily incident and necessary to the day-to-day operations in the Russian Federation of such U.S. persons or entities.” Dry cargoes, like Russian coal for Turkey and grain for Egypt, which are being hit by the US-NATO-Ukrainian drone campaign on the Black Sea, appear to be covered by the new Trump scheme – if the Ukrainian drone targeting is also covered.
Dmitriev added his celebration tweet: “BREAKING: New York Harbor wholesale diesel fell approximately 4.5% following the diesel supply agreement between Presidents Putin and Trump. The power of working together to stabilize markets and benefit the people.” This was misleading. US diesel prices had been falling for two weeks before Friday’s telephone call; the futures market reaction to the call was less than 3% on the day (see table and charts below).
Were the terms of Putin’s deal with Trump kept secret from the Rusian Security Council? Were the slowness of Ushakov to provide his read-out, and failure of Putin to brief reporters at the end of his visit to Turkmenistan, signs that there is deep skepticism towards Trump in public and in private?
Following the Security Council session with Putin on October 7, the communiqué was unusually short and secretive: “They discussed topical issues of Russian domestic and foreign policy.” Soon after the Council’s deputy head, ex-President Dmitry Medvedev, telegrammed defiance of both Americans and Europeans: “There’s no other way: to live with wolves is to howl like one.”
Putin then flew to Turkmenistan for a summit meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent (CIS) states with Iran. The diesel deal telephoned with Trump began after the President was back to Moscow. In secret, Dmitriev and Ushakov had been discussing the deal with Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner as they prepared to start talks on Friday morning in Miami with a Ukrainian delegation led by Kirill Budanov.
Minutes after the Trump tweet and Kremlin statement, Oleg Tsarev, a Ukrainian opposition leader in exile in Crimea, commented on his Telegram account: “Diesel exports are now banned until October 31. The exception is Central Asia and Mongolia. All Russian diesel exports are now 12-14 thousand tons [metric] per day against 100 thousand before drone attacks. Promised to Trump 300 thousand tons is three days of previous exports and less than a day of US consumption. I don’t know where to get diesel for the United States. Perhaps, if there are no blows to the refinery guaranteed, we will have surpluses over time. But this process is not a fast one.”
An hour later, Tsarev added: “Now it turns out that when Zelensky strikes at Russian refineries, he will be hitting directly at Trump’s interests. Do you think Zelensky will stop it? I guess not.”
Then the Kremlin posted a read-out from Ushakov. The time stamp is 23:55 Moscow time on Friday. Sixty-five minutes had elapsed since the initial Kremlin statement.
Ushakov revealed that he had begun negotiating the presidential call with Witkoff on Wednesday (October 7), but that it had been postponed until Putin returned to Moscow from Turkmenbashi, the Turkmen capital. According to Ushakov, Trump gave Putin his belated birthday greetings, while Putin responded with “words of gratitude of our President to the First Lady of the United States for her active humanitarian activities and, in particular, for her contribution to the efforts to reunite children with families separated during the Ukrainian conflict.”
This is a recorded telephone message: Putin and Ushakov have claimed he has said this in telephone conversations with Trump several times over in the past.
On Russian diesel exports to the US, Ushakov said: “I will not be able to satisfy, dear colleagues, your curiosity and reveal in detail the specific issues discussed by the Presidents… The leaders of the two countries discussed the preparations in detail of large-scale economic initiatives, including possible deliveries of Russian oil products to American and global markets. On this account, by the way, special statements were made already by the Presidents of Russia and the United States.”
Has Trump promised Putin to put a stop to Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets?
Ushakov said: “Donald Trump listened carefully to our argument and said that he would instruct the transmission of the corresponding signals to the Ukrainian delegation that is in Miami these days for contacts with American representatives.”
There is an unusual blackout on the video record of Ushakov’s briefing; no one is visible. Three questions have been recorded from reporters. Asked by a reporter “can you confirm that President Trump has stated the amount of diesel to be provided to the United States?” Ushakov replied: “You know, I read this statement and I read about it ahead of when I told you about the course of this conversation. And what else I can say? A special statement on this subject was made by the Russian President. It has already been circulated across all the media. And besides, the representatives of our Ministry of Energy also made a statement.”
Ushakov was referring to a statement just issued by Alexander Novak, the deputy prime minister in charge of the energy sector: “We are immediately beginning to lift the restrictions on diesel exports ahead of the scheduled deadlines.”
“Can you say whether there were any concessions from the US to Russia and in exchange for what Russia agreed to deliver diesel fuel in the United States?”
“Yu.Ushakov: You know, the American side, I think will give some clarification on this account additionally. I have told you what I wanted to say. Before me, our President has clearly expressed what is needed in his special statement.”
According to Moscow sources in a position to know, Putin is keeping secret what diesel terms have been agreed because they are conditional. The Russians are waiting for Trump to order the Ukrainians to cease attacking the hinterland refineries, port terminals, and tankers at sea. The delivery schedule Trump has announced isn’t confirmed by the Russians because the shipments will not occur until and unless Trump proves that he can control the drone war.
“There is a Kremlin wager,” one source commented, “and it’s a safe bet for a good Russian profit. If the Trump announcement helps him improve his position in Congress on November 3, he will owe Putin a big favour, and he should press harder on Zelensky, NATO, the Europeans. And if he doesn’t, or can’t because he loses as badly as predicted on November 3, the Russian diesel export releases proposed for November and December can be stopped immediately. And if there is sanctions relief, they will turn out to be a cheap price to pay, and Russian money to earn, if the entire scheme stops on January 9, and we go back to war as usual.”
Not so long ago, godfearing Russians believed that if they saw a coin lying on the footpath, they should step over it and not look back because it would be bad luck to pick it up.
This was not a primitive superstition. It is a rational calculation, my wife Tatiana explained, advising that I should make it myself.
The calculation was that if the Power (власть) which had caused the coin to drop from its owner was powerful enough, It might be tempted to prove it by delivering an even richer windfall to the passerby who feigned indifference to the coin, and thus to the power behind it.
Be wary, the Power is jealous and vengeful – that’s the Russian meaning. It demands compliance, not understanding.
Kirill Dmitriev, the US-trained advisor to President Vladimir Putin on how to drop money money in front of Americans, has convinced Putin that he’s powerful enough to persuade them to pick it up. Tania didn’t think much of Dmitriev — he looked too much like a puffer fish, she thought, to convince anyone of anything except that, like the fish, he carries a dangerous poison.
Step over the money, step over Dmitriev – that ought to be the rational calculation.
But since Putin is the power, he can make himself understood directly. And the President does try to explain what he proposes to do and why this is reasonable for Russia’s national interests and security. This is the power asking to be understood, not only by the Russians but also by Russia’s enemies in this war – the Americans, Europeans, British, the other NATO members, and the Japanese.
The problem, Putin also acknowledged last week at the Valdai Club, is that the enemies refuse to understand what he means because, he explained, they are brainwashed or forced into compliance by their ruling classes.
There’s another problem, Putin added in answering a questioner from India.
The present foreign minister in Delhi, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, is attempting to promote schemes which aren’t those which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin have discussed many times over and agreed on. Modi, not Jaishankar, has “excellent ideas aimed at finding mutually acceptable – I would like to stress ‘mutually’ – solutions. In this sense, the Prime Minister certainly maintains a neutral position while remaining committed to seeing the conflict end.”
Jaishankar’s promotion of a “peace plan” with the encouragement of the Europeans, Americans, and the regime in Kiev is a false coin, Putin was saying – step over it and not look back, власть was advising Modi.
Jaishankar was unabashed, undeterred, hard of hearing. He has kept repeating his plan. So the Kremlin has slapped him down. “No, unlikely,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, repeated for Jaishankar. “Unlikely for now, although we naturally welcome the efforts of our Indian friends. They concern only a specific aspect of a settlement.” “[Peace plans] are all on the table, but we have also repeatedly said at various levels that we favour a comprehensive solution rather than a piecemeal one, a solution that would lead to a lasting settlement for many, many years, for decades.”
In the new podcast with Jamarl Thomas, aired on Thursday morning US Eastern Time, we discuss the desperation measures which both the enemies and also friends like the Indians are resorting to at this stage of the war.
A source in Delhi in a position to know adds that Jaishankar has also been dismissed by the Kiev regime and by Trump officials. “The Americans and Ukrainians have given him their answer. After Modi repeatedly asked [Kiev] for the protection of Indian seafarers, they attacked the oil tanker [the Aframax Rio] near Sochi on which all crew was Indian and taking oil to India. And so in the face of very clear positioning, declarations and actions by both the Russians and Ukrainians, it makes no sense for [Jaishankar] except self-promotion. He is after a Peace Prize.”
For detail of the desperation measures of politicians in failing states — President Trump, Chancellor Merz, President Macron, and others — click to view or listen now.
by Editor - Thursday, October 8th, 2026 No Comments »
When the time of your labour is converted into the profit of the capital which employs you, you belong to the working class. You don’t get time off for vacation. No money.
All Russians know this because it was one of the foundation ideas of the communist party state known as the Soviet Union. Vacations came at state expense because the state, not private capital, employed everybody, and everybody had the communist right to time off for rest and recreation. To be sure, because the US empire was at war to destroy the Soviet Union, there weren’t too many holiday destinations in that empire which Russians were able to get to – unless they too were state owned, communist managed, beyond US empire control. Bulgaria, Cuba, East Germany, and India were possible, but for Russians rare.
So the end of the communist party rule in 1991 meant the freedom of the Russian working class to take off for vacation wherever in the world they wanted to go. Only they couldn’t.
The US empire now ruled the Kremlin and its occupant Boris Yeltsin and his men. On cue, they cut the labour value of the Russian working class so they had less cash to spend, fewer traditional Russian sanitoria to welcome them; a great many no longer needed time off because they were terminally ailing or dead. Under Yeltsin the plan of the reformed Russian health system was to reduce working class numbers by cutting the social welfare cost in the strict new deficit-reduction targets of the state budget and Central Bank monetary controls. No spending on defence against the empire.
No American ICE-type or Israeli Gaza-type extermination methods either. It was death for Russians off the books, so to speak.
In 1997, for example, 74% of Russians polled by the Levada Centre said they had no holiday plan away from their homes; 23% said they had a country dacha to go to; 10% were heading to the beaches of the Russian Caucasus or to another Russian city; just 1% said they would travel to a post-Soviet country; another 1% to the fabled free West.
President Vladimir Putin’s reforms over the past quarter century have improved the real incomes of this working class, but not by enough to make much difference to the time off for vacation. By 2018, Levada polling reported 66% had no holiday plan; that’s an 8 percentage point improvement on 1997. One percentage point more, 24%, said they were going to the dacha; 8% went to the Caucasus; 4% to the fabled free West. That’s a 3 percentage point gain. Call that social mobility under Putin – some Russians were moving up into the ruling class.
Then the war came in February 2022. Levada stopped polling Russians for their holiday plans. They have been polled instead for the reasons they express for not having a holiday plan: rising fear of unemployment; loss of real income, of consumer spending power and of confidence in the economic future.
The Russian media have turned to tourism, travel and hotel industry sources to note that since the May start of the Russian holiday season, the escalation of the US empire’s drone war against hinterland targets has changed the travel plans for the minority of workers wanting to vacation in Crimea and along the Black Sea shore of the Caucasus. Disruption and delays of rail, road and air movements, and attacks on beaches, have had a significant deterring effect.
The ruling class, however, has run into the European sanctions war making flight connections into western Europe difficult, visa issuance more unpredictable, and except for Italy, trouble at the border and anti-Russian sentiment inside Europe. This has been an unwelcome reminder to the Russian ruling class that the colour of their money is still red. “With Europe increasingly out of reach, some Russians are embracing the Kremlin’s pivot to Asia and Africa.”
These Russians, Izvestiareported at the end of July, have headed to the friendly countries where the risk of war is minimal. “The demand for accommodation is growing most dynamically in China and Abkhazia — by 71% year-on-year; in Armenia – by 51%; in Turkey — by 43%; in Georgia — by 29%; in Japan — by 12%. Italy stands out among other destinations: the country has risen from twelfth to sixth place in the ranking of the most popular foreign countries, and the demand for accommodation has increased by 69%. In general, the top 10 most popular holiday destinations for the May holidays include Belarus, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, China, Thailand, Abkhazia, and Italy. The average cost of a booked night in foreign hotels and apartments for the holidays is 9.8 thousand rubles, which is 3% lower than last year (10.1 thousand rubles).
These Russian travellers don’t call themselves the ruling class.
President Vladimir Putin spoke about the ruling class last week in exchanges with foreign academics and think tankers. He believed, he said, that the reason for the war against Russia comes from the ruling classes of the US, Europe, and Japan. “Faced with adverse economic trends at home, an increasingly precarious position for their ruling political classes, and changing public sentiment, they now seem to be provoking confrontation with Russia and fuelling further crises between Russia and Europe. They are doing so precisely in order to justify preparations for war and to rally as many supporters as possible around themselves, thereby enabling them to remain in power. The logic is very simple. I am convinced that this explains a significant part of the reasoning behind the European countries’ conduct toward the Russian Federation.”
He was hopeful, he added, that the ruling class of the US can be persuaded to behave differently towards Russia, “particularly under President Trump.” Putin omitted to say whether he thinks there is a ruling class in Russia.
However, if you follow the vacation trail, you will find there is one – and it points to lack of the confidence which Putin has expressed in Trump and the American ruling class for the future of their own interests.
They have stopped buying second, vacation, or haven homes in the US, according to recently released survey data. “Cyprus and Greece have moved up to fourth and fifth place in the ranking of popular destinations among Russians for buying real estate, based on the results for January–September 2026, RIA Novosti reported, citing Mikhail Bulanov, managing partner at Tranio. Thailand remained the leader, but its share decreased from 22.9% to 17.8% of applications. Turkey retained second place (an increase from 8.4% to 10.2%), and the UAE came in third (from 8.3% to 9.8%). Cyprus rose from sixth place to fourth (from 5.4% to 8.1%), Greece to fifth (from 5.4% to 7.3%).”
“Cyprus and Greece have increased in the ranking due to visa opportunities: in them, the purchase of housing is combined with the registration of residential status — the golden visa of Greece is issued together with the second passport, permanent residence of Cyprus — through the purchase of new housing starting from 300,000 euros, Bulanov said. Georgia entered the ranking, taking sixth place along with Montenegro. Next are France, Spain, and Italy. The island of Bali has dropped out of the top 10 — buyers are put off by problems with building permits and land status. Earlier, DP reported that foreigners in Bali are not allowed to own land on a freehold basis. Only long‑term leases or usage rights registered in the state register for a period of up to 25–30 years, with subsequent extensions, are permitted. At the same time, over the past two years, the island’s authorities have stepped up inspections and have begun to close down and demolish buildings constructed with violations.”
“The median budget for purchasing real estate abroad increased by 9.5% year‑on‑year — to 298,000 euros. In 2025, Thailand was pulling the budget down, with condominiums costing 120,000–150,000 euros, while in 2026 the share of Turkey, the UAE and Cyprus grew — where the typical budget is 300,000–350,000 euros. In Cyprus, rising prices are driven by the expectation of joining Schengen and the discussed tightening of the conditions for the permanent residence investment programme. As reported by DP, Russians have maintained their leading position among foreigners in terms of purchasing housing in Turkey. In August 2026, they purchased 343 apartments and houses there, holding the top spot since April 2022 — for the 53rd consecutive month.”
On his birthday this week, October 7, the President didn’t celebrate with a holiday at the beach. He stayed at home in the Kremlin where he held a meeting with the Security Council to discuss “current matters pertaining to Russia’s domestic and foreign policy.”
There is nothing phoney about this stage of the permanent war against Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba, not if you are under the US empire’s guns at the front, in the rear, or on the high seas.
At this stage there is good news to report, and also some not so good news.
There is also a question the General Staff has for President Vladimir Putin. Theirs is a quiet conversation. The substance of it, however, is publicized in the editorials of the western media this week. They are saying that none of Putin’s nuclear war threats is credible, even as they insist that for the planning, operational and strategic purpose of responding to those threats, they are militarizing their economies and mobilizing their forces at a price of up to 5% of their Gross Domestic Products.
To them, Putin is replying that he isn’t threatening anyone and Russia is not intending to escalate to the next stage of the war.
“The word ‘escalation’ is often used now to describe and forecast various global conflicts, meaning unwillingness to use real diplomacy based on reality and respect for the interests of all sides, a desire to aggravate the situation, raise the stakes and even bluff, crossing red lines in the hope of suppressing and intimidating the opponent, and breaking their will. There is nothing new in the escalation of hostilities and sanctions; this practice has been used in many conflicts, and it is never unilateral, because one side’s provocations inevitably trigger a response from the other side. Therefore, the spiral is tightening, and the devastating consequences are growing…The more uncompromising a response, and the more clearly the goal of the opponent’s ‘strategic defeat’ is declared, the greater the chances that the battle will escalate into the most violent phase. The survival of the fittest applies not only to the natural world but also to social communities, if they are faced with the possible loss of their independence, dignity and the very right to exist.”
This is what Putin said aloud last week. Quietly, behind the Kremlin Wall, the General Staff has asked: What will be our strategic victory?
The General Staff is saying to the Commander in Chief: Look, we are achieving our tactical battlefield objectives on the front of the Ukrainian battlefield, and also our operational objectives in the west and south of the Ukraine – from Kiev to Lvov and the Polish border, as well as Odessa and the Black Sea ports. However, our intelligence reports indicate we are still quite far from achieving our strategic end-of-war objectives – demilitarizing Ukraine so that Russia will be secure from drone and missile attack in the future; and denazifying the Ukrainian regime in Kiev so that it will not remain the fascist gun platform against Russia which it has been for more than a hundred years.
Between asking the question inside the Kremlin and answering it in fire orders to the command-and-control line, there is a pause for reflection, debate, decision, change of mind, more pause (aka temporizing, vacillation, equivocation, indecision, dithering, shilly-shallying).
“How can we counter an aggressor?” Putin said aloud on October 1. “We are not threatening anyone. We are simply stating that we do not have all that many means of defending ourselves. And, incidentally, neither that letter nor the Foreign Ministry’s statement mentions the use of nuclear weapons. They speak, as I have just put it, of employing all the forces and means available to our country. As for how that would actually happen, we will decide that ourselves…We are not threatening anyone. We have no intention of attacking anyone, whether in 2029, 2030 or 2050…Who needs this? No one needs it. But this, too, is one of the elements of aggressive behaviour towards Russia. It must stop. We do not do this; we do not attack anyone; we do not seize anyone’s ships. It must stop.”
Must stop is a strategic imperative for Russia.
How now?
That is the question of today’s podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, aired at afternoon tea time in Moscow, breakfast time in Washington, DC.
In the memory of nations, a very special curse is reserved for the ruler who wanted peace not war; but was trapped by his enemies, not only into fighting on his enemies’ terms and timetable, but also into losing the war, and then losing the verdict of history of who was to blame for warmongering in the first place.
Wilhelm (lead image, left) – in 1914 the German Kaiser’s son, his successor as Crown Prince, and the loser of the war, his inheritance, and the throne – wrote in 1922, when it was all over for him, his father, and for Germany: “They”, meaning the British, French, Russians, “paid us the compliment of believing in our belligerence rather than in our incompetence.”
He was admitting, ironically but also ruefully, that after the Allied victory in World War I, it didn’t matter that pre-war German belligerence had been a lie, repeated over and over by the Allied leaders and in their media, especially by that arch-liar Winston Churchill, who loved war when it advanced his political power and fortune, as it almost always did.
In capitulation, Wilhelm was also conceding that he and his father would forever appear to have been to blame for their incompetence.
President Vladimir Putin had something similar to say about the war that has been forced on him and on Russia by the US, the British and French again, the Germans again – all of Europe.
In a finger he pointed at Mikhail Gorbachev, Putin said: “I would also like to highlight a certain naivety, idealism, or perhaps even complacency on the part of those who stood at the helm of the state during the final years of the Soviet era. Blind trust in Western partners and confidence in “gentlemen’s agreements,” when they thought they could simply take someone at their word and come to terms also played a cruel joke on the Soviet Union.”
Putin’s not going to fall for that joke, he emphasized. He was hinting that as he meant Gorbachev, his Russian listeners have all understood his references to Russians’ blind trust in US and NATO to mean Boris Yeltsin.
“The Soviet leaders wanted the West to like them, while Western leaders sought to reshape the world to suit their needs and to grab their share – preferably a large one – of the Soviet legacy. We can see the result now…Short-sightedness, narrow and unrealistic ideological dogmas instead of pragmatism, incompetence, and the practice of sweeping obvious problems under the carpet gradually exacerbated and undermined the Soviet Union’s domestic and international standing. Ultimately, these factors led to its collapse.”
Putin is implying that he himself never wanted Western leaders to like him. Or that if he once fell into that trap, he has now recognized the error of his way, and pulled himself out.
Fighting the war of the US and European states now, according to Putin, doesn’t mean falling into the traps they are setting with propaganda of Putin’s belligerence, provocations to draw him into battlefield traps. “We are not trying to scare anyone. What you have just mentioned – the Foreign Ministry’s statement and the letters it sent to certain countries – is not intimidation; it is a response to attempts to intimidate us. After all, it is not us who are making these statements about the need, possibility, or preparation for a war with Russia in 2029 or 2030. These statements come from Western and European politicians. We hear them constantly. Constantly. And then there are concrete actions: one exercise after another in the Baltic Sea, followed by attempts to detain our ships and vessels. All of this constitutes escalation, as I said in my remarks. All this is escalation.”
“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation – in this case, Kaliningrad, although it could potentially involve other territories as well – the question of Russia using all the weapons at its disposal would inevitably and immediately arise. That is inevitable…we understand that we would be facing an adversary with twice our population. It has immense economic and military potential. Yes, we would not have a vast array of forces and means at our disposal to counter such a threat. We would have to rely on our competitive advantages in this struggle. And what are they? The fact is that we possess such advantages in the means we have to defend ourselves. Yes, of course, France and the UK are nuclear powers. We understand that perfectly well and are fully aware of it. But no one else possesses the kinds of strike capabilities that Russia has today. And these are our competitive advantages…incidentally, neither that letter nor the Foreign Ministry’s statement mentions the use of nuclear weapons. They speak, as I have just put it, of employing all the forces and means available to our country. As for how that would actually happen, we will decide that ourselves.”
The response from the allies to Putin is to keep insisting on his belligerence, and also to dismiss what he says as incompetent. The obvious contradictions between the two don’t matter, because as the German Crown Prince had learned, the truth doesn’t matter. Striking first, winning the war at the end does.*
So what can that end-of-war be today when the war against Russia in Europe is a world war against Russia on all its fronts, and so a war against Iran and China, and against them all on the high seas and in the movement of money.
“Putin’s nuclear threats no longer work”, headlined the editorial of the Financial Times yesterday. “The waning of the deterrent power of the Russian nuclear arsenal has, over time, made Ukraine’s western allies much less cautious about the kinds of weapons they are prepared to provide to Kyiv. Tanks, fighter planes and long-range missiles to fire at targets inside Russia — all once off the menu — have now all been supplied…The failure of nuclear deterrence is a particular setback for Russia. The possession of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal is one of the country’s only remaining claims to superpower status. Building and maintaining its stockpile is also enormously expensive. Russian pundits continue to fulminate and fantasise about nuclear strikes on Europe — presumably with the Kremlin’s encouragement. But these outbursts no longer make news in Europe.”
Down the street in London, the Guardianhas also editorialized on why Putin’s warfighting rhetoric is incompetent. “Putin might nevertheless calculate that a massive bombing operation this winter that turns off the lights, disrupts heating and damages waterworks and sanitation systems will break Ukrainians’ willpower, creating conditions for Russia to conclude the war with additional territory in hand…Still, the Russian leader’s strategy collides with some inconvenient facts, quite apart from Ukrainians’ proven toughness. The historical record shows that bombing campaigns don’t crush morale; they strengthen it. Ukrainians won’t be the exception. They regard resistance to Russia as essential for national survival.”
During the Americanization of Russian popular culture in the 1990s, the meaning of the word класс (pronounced kl-ah-ss) was dismantled – reformed was the political term in fashion then.
The word had come into the Russian language when Tsar Peter the Great (1682-1725) borrowed it from the German, French, and Latin words whose meaning originally referred to ranks in the army, citizenry, and government bureaucracy; school classes; categories in biology, botany, and other scientific classifications.
By the time Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin in 2000, young Russians were saying класс! to mean “Oh boy!”, “wow!”, “cool!”, “awesome!”. A one-syllable hiss of approval, nothing more.
Last week, Putin reintroduced класс with a different exclamation point. “We hope”, he told a Japanese questioner, “that, on the part of the Japanese ruling class, the Japanese political establishment and Japan as a whole, the same disposition towards mutual, joint work in the interests of both countries will one day prevail.”
In the European states, he said he was seeing the conflict between classes at home turn into war with Russia outside. “Faced with adverse economic trends at home, an increasingly precarious position for their ruling political classes, and changing public sentiment, they now seem to be provoking confrontation with Russia and fuelling further crises between Russia and Europe. They are doing so precisely in order to justify preparations for war and to rally as many supporters as possible around themselves, thereby enabling them to remain in power. The logic is very simple. I am convinced that this explains a significant part of the reasoning behind the European countries’ conduct toward the Russian Federation.”
In the US, Putin said he thinks the ruling class acts differently from the ruling classes of Europe.
“The ruling class of the United States has an understanding of how to build relations. Yes, there is influence probably, probably there — always was. But ultimately, the US is driven by its national interests, especially with President Trump. This, by the way, also applies to the relations between the United States and Europe. Look, for example to put it mildly, in order not to offend anyone, pragmatic decisions are made by the United States in the sphere of economic interaction with Europe, yes? We see it, we understand, you know what I’m talking about. Therefore, yes, there is influence, but above all the US is guided by its interests.”
“Before that, under President Biden, I think that there, by contrast, the government of the United States had a greater influence on Europe’s position on Russia, but then the dynamics of the events that are taking place began to develop according to its laws. Now, of course, the main, leading European countries take a much more aggressive stance against Russia than the United States. If the US seeks to end the conflict, it seems that many countries in Europe, as I have said today, based on the unfavourable development of the economies in their countries, respectively, the provisions of the ruling political class at the moment, based on changes in sentiment within their countries, now they are, perhaps the instigators of aggressive behaviour against Russia and the creation of additional crises between Russia and Europe to justify the need to prepare for war and mobilize around itself as many supporters as possible, to stay in power.”
War to destroy Russia to save the ruling classes of Europe! Despite the best efforts of the American ruling class to stop it! Класс! Oh boy! Awesome!
In this new, extra-long podcast with Rasheed Muhammad, broadcast on Saturday afternoon Chicago time, we discuss the mistakes that are being made here. Click to view or listen: https://www.youtube.com/live/NfkmyFNcf18
In the long history of political thinking in the world, the great Russian contributions have been to the recognition of human oppression and the mind required to fight it.
Bakunin, Kropotkin, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin: these names are no longer absent from Moscow bookshop shelves, but their lessons are not taught in the Russian school curriculum and classroom.
Thinking is not the same as doing, that’s to say fighting against oppression and winning — in which the great Russian names in this short history must share their place with others: Zhukov with Giap, Mao, Bolivar, Mukhtar, Krim, Castro. The longer history of generals is full of men who fought for oppression and won. The history of kings, and of generals who have made themselves kings, doesn’t count – by definition they are for oppression. Except perhaps for Cromwell.
In his speech to the Valdai Claque – er, Club — on October 1, President Vladimir Putin attempted to apply his political thinking to his method for combating oppression against Russia first of all, naturally; but also against oppression worldwide in which “the radical shifts and opening up here opportunities they create, fuel ambitions, willingness to take risks for the sake of an apparent big win.”
Putin remembered the language of his Russian predecessors very well. He omitted their category terms “capitalism” and “imperialism” – “narrow and inadequate ideological patterns instead of pragmatism”, he called them. But he repeated the operational one, “ruling class”, three times.
The Japanese “ruling class”, he hoped, would share with Russia “the same disposition towards mutual, joint work in the interests of both countries.” “The ruling class of the United States”, he believes, “has an understanding of how to build relations…but in the end the US is guided by its own national interests, especially under President Trump”. In Switzerland, “the case is not in the size of the country, but in the ruling class that makes the decisions. The point is how responsible it is for the interests of its own people and how capable it is to conduct an independent, sovereign policy.”
Not since Stalin has a Russian leader attempted to explain in public what he thinks to be the root causes of these wars; and what he has decided must be the Russian method for dealing with the ruling classes of enemy states.
Unsaid, the President’s implication is that Russia doesn’t have a ruling class; that he doesn’t represent a ruling class himself; and that in the absence of capitalism ruling at home and expanding as imperialism abroad, he can negotiate for Russia’s immediate defence and long-term security with the “national interests” of the enemy states, “especially under President Trump”.
And not only Putin for Russia and Trump for the US, but also Netanyahu for Israel in its wars in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
“The problem of Israel,” he told Taha Ozhan, a Turkish state advisor who asked about Israel’s five wars, “must be determined by the Israeli people. The people of Israel must define in the course of their democratic electoral procedures all Israel’s problems.” In response to an Iranian question about the Israeli-American wars against Iran and Palestine, Putin said the killing of Iran’s national security advisor Ali Larijani was “a mistake”, and that the genocide in Gaza “is one of the most acute and sensitive humanitarian problems.”
“The whole world is watching closely,” Putin continued, “and admires the courage, heroism of the Iranian people and its steadfastness, and …in the state management, in the armed forces, in the IRGC, and in the people, the readiness for self-sacrifice in the name of the people’s future.”
Not the Palestinians, Putin omitted to say. About them, he said: “the Palestinian problem, I said, again I repeat, it can be solved only on the basis of the creation of a full-fledged Palestinian state. As for the fact that US policy towards Palestine is determined by Israel, this is unlikely, I will allow myself to say. I know Turkey’s position on these problems. But still, the current US leadership is guided primarily by its national interests — in this I have no doubt knowing President Trump.”
Putin also has no doubt knowing that “the interconnectedness of the world is here and is not going away. The might makes right principle sometimes [sic] appears to guide certain international actors who are convinced of their own military-political, economic and, as they think, moral exceptionalism. We know perfectly well from history that this never ends well.” In this history that isn’t ending well, Putin believes there may be a few European “moral exceptionalists” – not capitalists, not imperialists, and certainly not Trump nor Netanyahu.
It’s not surprising when JP Morgan, the largest bank in the US, and the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) under Elvira Nabiullina agree on the future and what’s to be done to get there profitably.
However, when JP Morgan’s commodities research team – composed of three Russian émigrés to the US – reported to clients last month on global oil demand, supply and price they admitted they do not know how to predict the future. “We don’t have a baseline view” was their professional euphemism. They explained, as reported indirectly, “since the [Iran] war began, Brent has averaged about $94, not $130. Global inventories of crude and products are down about 555 million barrels — only one-third of what JPMorgan originally projected. Demand is running about 4.4 million b/d below year-ago levels. The market cleared the shock through demand destruction first, and stock draws second…When commercial inventories fall, prices usually rise because buyers compete for scarce barrels. When the market clears through weaker demand, the price response works the other way. China is the case study: JPMorgan estimated Chinese gasoline demand destruction at about 180,000 b/d and said 70% of that may not return even after markets normalize, which could cut China’s crude import need by as much as 1 million b/d.”
The bank is warning that, whether or not the Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb Straits open for more or less energy flows, the US war against Iran and Yemen, in parallel with the US-NATO war against Russian oil tankers at sea and domestic Russian refineries, has already begun to destroy the global demand for crude oil and petroleum products. The outcome in the short and medium term: the oil marker price isn’t going steadily upwards, but the country-by-country GDP projection is going steadily downwards into recession.
For US voters preparing for the November 3 congressional elections, this is obvious. Not only has the ratio of disapproval to approval of the Trump Administration’s performance on inflation reached a record high of minus 42%; so too is the disapproval of Trump’s performance on the economy.
In contrast to the JP Morgan report, Nabiullina of the Central Bank was emphatic in her report of September 30 that she knows all there is to know. There are four scenarios for the 2027-29 period, she claimed — a risk scenario, a proinflationary scenario, a deflationary scenario, and a baseline. Nabiullina was confident her baseline will come true. “The Bank of Russia considers the baseline scenario to be the most probable one. As for the disinflationary and proinflationary scenarios, the latter is more likely. The probability of the risk scenario remains low.”
In case she is wrong on the baseline, she also announced that it won’t be her fault – it will be the mistake of the Russian Ministry of Finance and the result of external, global factors. “The fiscal policy-related assumptions of the baseline scenario rely on public comments by the Ministry of Finance regarding the structural primary deficit of the federal budget. The baseline scenario assumes that the deficit will be decreasing gradually and reach a zero level in 2029. The forecast calculations are based on the assumption that the structural primary deficit will equal 2% of GDP in 20266, 1% of GDP in 2027, and 0.5% of GDP in 2028.”
Because the rising budget expenditures on the war in the Ukraine are pushing on the deficit, Nabiullina is implying – as she has done from before the Special Military Operation commenced – that she wants the war to end this year (on US, European and Ukrainian terms) and is opposed to the General Staff, Defense Ministry and Security Council plan to fight on.
Nabiullina buries the recession for the Russian economy in her risk scenario projection – minus 8% to minus 9% GDP contraction in 2027. That will come with collapsing consumer spending and capital investment. The baseline projection for GDP is close to zero this year and no better than plus 2.5% next year. “The baseline scenario assumes that the supply shocks that emerged in 2026 due to the temporary contraction of production capacity in certain industries will be transitory” – that’s Nabiullina’s alibi for the disinvestment her high Central Bank interest rates has caused.
“As regards external conditions, the baseline and disinflationary scenarios assume that the current trends in the world economy and the sanction pressure will remain almost unchanged…Whatever the scenario,” she has concluded, “the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy will be aimed at returning inflation to 4% and stabilising it sustainably close to this level. The complex of measures and decisions made will be adjusted depending on the state of the Russian economy, inflation trends, and the main indicators in financial markets.
That’s CBR-speak for saying Nabiullina doesn’t know what will be happen after she comes to the end of her term in June 2027.
The Kremlin-backed security analysis platform, Vzglyad, is also insisting that the bad news for the enemy states can only be good news for Russia’s warfighting strategy. Ignoring the demand destruction line from JP Morgan, Vzglyad has just published its report headline: “The depletion of global oil reserves plays into Russia’s hands.”
President Vladimir Putin was more sanguine in his speech to the Valdai Club on Thursday (October 1): “Whatever scenario unfolds in the world in the years ahead, the international conflicts, unfortunately, are likely to continue. This is due in part to the fact that the profound shifts now under way, and the opportunities they create, fuel and encourage ambitions and a willingness to take risks for what may appear to be a major payoff. I wish I were wrong in this assessment, but the sustainable trends we are witnessing, unfortunately, suggest otherwise.”
The JP Morgan report warned that know-nothing is now more realistic than positive oil supply and demand projections, according to the indirect quotes. “Anyone printing a single 2027 average [for oil and gas prices] today is choosing a peace date. JP Morgan’s peace date is not a market input anymore.”
